Entrepreneurs and CEOs are the Navy SEALs of the business world. You can learn a lot from special forces (and top athletes). Discipline, leadership and dealing with uncertainty. Because uncertainty is the only certainty. SEALs are masters of uncertainty. While the SEALs’ ability to train and strategise is unparalleled, what sets them apart isn’t just martial skill or strategic acumen. It’s their composure amid the unpredictable, their deft navigation through complexity and chaos.
Life in not predictable
Our culture promotes a misleading belief that life is predictable. Arguably, the most detrimental aspect of the predictability paradigm is its reinforcement of the notion that peak performance represents the ultimate standard of success. Peak performance is often conditional. It typically requires a predictable and familiar environment. It requires training, discipline, and preparation.
Forget about peak performance
In reality, achieving repetitive peak performance is unrealistic because uncertainty is the foundational state of life. Striving for peak performance or expecting yourself always to meet perfect standards of “peak” as a constant goal sets the stage for setbacks when faced with the unpredictable.Uncertainty is everywhere all the time, and success is about performing optimally in it. So, you need to design for uncertainty.
Tap into pre-exiting capabilities
These strategies are “actualising neurology.” Masters of Uncertainty aren’t inherently different from the rest of us; they’re simply tapping into the preexisting capabilities of their brains.
1. You can move horizons. It involves consciously deciding upon and executing the most effective action.
2. You can keep going and harness your body’s intrinsic motivation mechanisms to power you through challenges for as long as necessary.
3. You can stay cool using a series of practical techniques designed to maintain an optimal balance of alertness and composure, ensuring mental clarity and optimal performance in any situation.
Flip the Script: From stressed to stimulated
Panic happens when the discomfort becomes so intolerable that you’re driven to quell it impulsively, forgoing the wisdom of a measured breath. Procrastination happens when the discomfort of autonomic arousal, or even just your anticipation of it, makes the task seem too daunting to confront head-on. You can embrace and channel your body’s energy, pairing it with composure and strategic control. How? By tapping into a primal capability, you already possess what the author calls “moving horizons.” Moving horizons is a process where you anchor yourself in the present moment by focusing on what you can ascertain and influence. The essence of moving horizons is being both swift and proactive. Proactive because establishing control from the onset is far more manageable than fighting to regain lost ground.
Duration, Pathway, Outcome (DPO)
Duration: The ticking clock—how long this episode will stretch.
Pathway: The road map—your passage through it.
Outcome: The finish line—what lies at the end of the road.
Manage your autonomic arousal
Autonomic arousal fires in proportion to how clear the brain is on these three aspects of a situation. Moving horizons is a process where you remain anchored in the present while actively shaping your own duration, pathway, and outcome. Plant your feet firmly in the present. Ask: “What do I know and control right now?” Then, carve out a DPO by selecting a goal within reach. It’s a cycle: Pose the question, set the DPO, advance. Pose the question, set the DPO, and advance. You’ve successfully realised your goal, nonetheless, by breaking it down into singular DPOs to concentrate on sequentially. It is the brain’s way of eating the proverbial elephant, one bite at a time,
Control in the present moment
The frontal lobe is the part of the brain that thinks coolly and executes strategically considered steps, even while other parts of you might be inclined to follow panicked instinct. When the frontal lobe is in command, actions are considered, not just reflexive. Knowledge and control are the reins that guide your frontal lobe and are, therefore, your bulwark, keeping the surges of instinctual response from overwhelming your composure. Return your focus to what you know and control, and you empower your frontal lobe to do its job of thinking and acting as rationally as possible.
Actualise Your Neurology with Better Questions
The brain operates with a question-answer mechanism: it continuously assesses its surroundings with questions and then generates answers. When you introduce a question into conscious thought, the mind is compelled to generate answers. Masters of Uncertainty steer their thoughts with better, more effective questions—questions that centre on what they can ascertain and influence. “What do I know? What can I control?” The brain can’t help but answer these questions in ways that put you at the helm.
Keep Going Your Body’s Performance Generator
Many harbour a misconception known as the “grit myth”: the belief that sheer willpower and unyielding effort are the keys to overcoming challenges as if depleting one’s energy is a badge of honour. To truly harness motivation, one must appropriately engage the body’s inherent drive system by setting meaningful horizons. A meaningful horizon is judiciously sized. It’s a challenge that’s within reach yet still calls for a stretch. It’s that sweet spot just beyond the borders of your comfort zone—incremental nudges.
Surf torture
One of the author´s trials was to endure what is called “surf torture”: to lie in the bone-chilling surf zone for hours without any indication of when it would end. But setting his sights on the next two minutes or enduring the next ten waves were two ways to set a horizon of just the right size: challenging but attainable. He knew he could withstand two minutes, so he’d withstand two minutes. After that, he withstands two more.
Dopamine and the Motivation Balance
Meaningful goals boost, rather than drain, motivation because of how dopamine functions. Dopamine is the driving force that enables you to seek out pleasurable experiences in the first place. It is the motivational push behind the pursuit of rewarding things. It powers the pursuit of all goals, from getting a slice of cheesecake to enduring surf torture. If a goal seems too daunting, your body can’t produce enough dopamine to propel you toward it. On the flip side, if your goal is too modest, the feeling of reward when you achieve it will be minimal or even zero. If there is no noticeable achievement, there will be no noticeable reward. If you find yourself overwhelmed at the outset or give up midway through a goal that’s too ambitious, don’t be too hard on yourself. It’s not necessarily a lack of willpower. It’s more about your dopamine system reaching its limit.
Meaningful horizons keep you going
Meaningful horizons are always personal, calibrated to your own abilities. Craft a challenge that’s genuine yet measured—intense enough to light that inner fire but not so daunting that it extinguishes it.
Keep your eyes off the prize
Refocus on what you know and what you can influence right now. Devote your attention to the immediate tasks at hand. Tackle the journey one step at a time, crafting one meaningful DPO after another. You can spark your motivation by segmenting tasks into a succession of small, meaningful goals, no matter how routine they may seem. Divide it into bite-size, rewarding tasks. Get innovative with your horizon-setting. Introduce just enough challenge to each segment to yield personal satisfaction.
Stay cool tools
Autonomic arousal is the body’s natural boost. It ignites a cascade of biochemical changes (such as pumping adrenaline and cortisol into the blood) to energise us when facing a challenge or threat. The modern brain yields to the ancient, instinctive lizard brain as it rises up to protect you with survival instinct. If this shift goes unchecked, it can spiral into what is known as autonomic overload (or “amygdala hijack,” as the amygdala plays a key role in initiating autonomic arousal), where actions become reflexive rather than reflective. Masters of Uncertainty skillfully adjust their internal mechanisms to fine-tune autonomic arousal, achieving the ideal level for any given circumstance.
Vision is our primary means of engaging with the world. A staggering 40% of the brain is devoted to the visual system. The visual system operates in two primary modes: focused and panoramic vision. When a threat looms, and autonomic arousal begins to rise, focused vision activates, and vision tends to narrow. But here’s the cool part: we can consciously influence this response. By intentionally shifting from focused to panoramic vision, we can dial back autonomic arousal. Panoramic vision, conversely, utilises a more relaxed set of neural pathways.
Practice the soft gaze: Choose an object in your environment, such as a wall, a window, or a tree. Focus on it, then gently relax your eyes. Begin to include the periphery in your vision. Slowly, you’ll become aware of your 180-degree field of vision without actively focusing on anything specific. Typically, if you maintain this for a couple of minutes, you’ll likely notice a calming effect. This is the sign that your autonomic arousal is diminishing, paving the way for clearer, more conscious thinking.
EMDR stands for Eye Movement Desensitisation and Reprocessing, a technique widely recognised in the field of mental health therapy. The method itself is quite simple: an object, such as your finger, is moved from side to side in front of your eyes. This eye movement technique has been proven to lower autonomic arousal, fostering both stress reduction and relaxation.
Breathwork is being increasingly recognised for its benefits. Research conducted has recently shown that the parts of the brain stem responsible for regulating voluntary breathing also interact with the areas that govern emotion.One method is cyclic hyperventilation. This involves a deep inhale through the nose, immediately followed by a deep exhale (either active or passive) through the mouth.
Apply Kapalabhati Pranayama, also known as the Breath of Fire. This ancient yogic practice consists of natural, passive inhales and short, forceful exhales. Inhale through your nose, feeling your belly expand as you do so. Without pausing, exhale forcefully through your nose while contracting your abdominal muscles.
CO2 BLOWOUT (Exhale-Emphasized) Breathing. It’s the accumulation of CO2 that causes discomfort. This reveals an intriguing aspect of our physiology: the buildup of CO2 is linked to autonomic arousal. Fortunately, you can exploit this connection by reversing the process. Reduce CO2 levels, and you calm autonomic arousal. This is a simple and effective breathing technique that involves two inhales through the nose, followed by a longer, slow exhale through the mouth.
Navy SEALs employ a technique known as box breathing to counteract this. Picture your breath moving along the edges of a square box, with each side representing a step: inhale for five seconds, hold for five seconds, exhale for five seconds, and hold again for five seconds. Equal parts inhalation and exhalation facilitate a harmonious balance of oxygen and CO2 in the blood. Box breathing preserves this equilibrium.
Mastering Your Self
We all have a set of innate strengths, and each person’s is unique. It’s not better or worse. Just unique. Optimal performance doesn’t require an overhaul, just a deeper understanding of oneself. Identify your “model,” embrace it, and drive forward using that knowledge. Look for the fundamental qualities that dictate how you engage with the world, solve problems, and make decisions. Every individual is endowed with some amount of each of the forty-one attributes, creating a unique constellation of characteristics that is as personal as a fingerprint. Such as
Grit
Mental acuity
Drive
Commitment
Vision
Social intelligence
Service
Leadership
Team ability
I am
In English, the phrase “I am” possesses an extraordinary potency. It is the precursor to a self-fulfilling prophecy. It shapes your whole focus and, by extension, your reality. Those two words and whatever follows are, in essence, your identity. For every person, what follows after the words “I am” is a complex tapestry woven from various values, ideals, and subconscious archetypes that lie at the core. Moving horizons amid uncertainty demands that we recognise the identities that propel us toward certain actions. Getting clear on who you are at your core means you can use this information to your advantage.
Know your core identities
Your identity—or identities—define your fundamental whats. Your few core identities play a pivotal role in what you do in any scenario. In the throes of profound uncertainty, they often emerge as the sole determinants. We are all mosaics of various identities. Numerous “I ams” coalesce to constitute our unique beings. Indeed, we accumulate diverse identities as we journey through life. The most dominant of your myriad identities are interwoven throughout your entire psyche, reaching into the subconscious, operating always from your core. It is your primary identities, the ones that resonate most deeply within, that guide your actions and behaviours when you are at your most raw. Consequently, mapping out the terrain of your identities is an important exercise. Take a moment to sit with pen and paper, and write “I am _______” several times. Do not hesitate to repeat this as many times as required.
Hone your instinct
A great example is the way Navy SEALs view time and punctuality. In the regular military, it’s, “If you are not fifteen minutes early, you are late.” For Navy SEALs, it’s “Plus or minus thirty seconds.” In the Navy SEAL world, being too early is just as bad as being too late. Pause and evaluate your instinct. Do not just acknowledge but actively seek out a spectrum of actions that diverge from your initial instinct. If cool reflection reveals that your instinct truly is the optimal path, then commit to it, moving your horizons with precision and intent. If it isn’t, hold your instinct in check while you consider other options. Finally, there may be times when leaning on an identity (and the actions that come with it) is exactly what is needed in the moment.
As a parent, what is the appropriate action in this moment?
As a Navy SEAL, what should I do right now?
As an entrepreneur, what is my take?
Etc.
Identities for Teams
The potency of a collective identity within a team is immeasurable. These are the tacit rules and conditions that stem from the “I am” of the group identity. When navigating uncertainty, it’s paramount that each team member’s personal identity resonates with the group identity. Teams that excel, and especially those that deftly handle uncertainty, not only share but also consciously reinforce their collective identity. They explicitly articulate their shared values and the behaviours that embody these values. Those are the rules and conditions that anchor all to the team’s mission.
What are your objectives in life?
Objectives are your purpose made tangible. Objectives are typically stronger motivators than vague purposes because they demand action. Objectives are beacons. The key strategy regarding objectives is simple: acknowledge your objective, then release it. Acknowledge it. Be clear and specific with yourself about its parameters, any relevant constraints, and your degree of commitment to it. Know where you’re headed. Every time you reach a horizon, zoom out and acknowledge your position relative to your objective. Survey the landscape ahead.
Embrace the twist
Masters of Uncertainty maintain their objectives and embrace inevitable twists and turns. Set horizons according to what you know and control, and let yourself be guided by the beacon of your cardinal direction. Once you set an objective, release it. There’s no need to dwell. Because it’s important to you, you won’t forget it. You have a long way to go to reach your objective. The unpredictable will strike. You need to be attentive to current circumstances to perform your best.
Stay in the moment
Do not obsess. That’s wasted energy and focus. Pause. Stay in the present moment. Assess what you know and control. You are eating the elephant one bite at a time. You don’t want to keep staring at the entire elephant. Be in the present moment. Focus on one day at a time. You will optimise the energy you have to keep going and reach the objective. Releasing fully and giving 100% of your attention to the present moment is especially crucial in times of acute challenge.
Dynamic subordination
This is my favourite part of the book. Collective leadership. Leadership as a mindset. Culture. I have written extensively about it. The author calls it dynamic subordination. It is a unique leadership model where the team member best suited to lead in any given moment steps up and takes charge. Dynamic subordination is team synergy at its finest. Team members remain present and move in unison, working seamlessly to enhance one another’s strengths and buttress weaknesses.
Traditional leadership models
The most common, yet often least effective, traditional leadership model is the hierarchical pyramid, also known as the “I am your leader; you work for me” approach.In contrast, a high-performing, dynamically subordinating team bases each member’s contribution not on rank but on their expertise and proximity to the problem. Another approach is the flat model, also known as the “We all work together” style. This model eschews rank and hierarchy, placing everyone at the same level, at least in theory. However, it often lacks clarity of who is actually “in charge,” which delays decisions while responsibilities bounce around without a definitive decision-maker. Conversely, dynamic subordination ensures fluid communication and transparent information sharing, allowing for rapid adjustments and contributions from all members. Lastly, there’s the upside-down pyramid, or the “I am your leader; I work for you” model.
Distributed leadership
In high-performance teams, the burden of leadership is distributed among members. It doesn’t rest solely on one person, allowing for both long-term performance (with no one getting burned out) and diversity of thought in decision-making. Dynamic subordination leverages the strengths of each team member in real time.
The leadership model for uncertainty
The model operates at new heights of fluidity and agility, securing the desired outcomes. Most importantly—it’s done for those moments of challenge and uncertainty when maximum perspective and participation are required. In a world where chaos is the norm and change is constant, dynamic subordination stands out as the most effective leadership model. Dynamic subordination is essentially a continuous dance between leading and following, something I also like to call “alpha hopping.”This leadership style is defined by real-time conditions, making it the ideal model for managing uncertainty. As the team morphs into whatever shape is required at any given moment, it optimises not just its ability to face external conditions but also the crucial (and often overlooked) internal conditions of motivation, energy, and overall health.
Information flow
In traditional models, information flows through a chain of command before decisions are made. In dynamically subordinating teams, the person closest to the problem and most capable steps up, crafts the DPO and decides on the next horizon. Everyone else follows. It is simple, fluid, agile, and immediate: adaptable to real conditions in real-time.
Situational awareness
For dynamic subordination to work, team members must disseminate and be transparent about their understanding of the task. The team member with the most insight, usually the closest to the problem, steps up to set the horizon. Those nearby support this new leader: they receive their information and then communicate the current action to the rest of the team.
Knowledge of One Another
With this knowledge, team members instantly recognise who should step up during uncertainty. High-performing teams establish clear expectations for leadership in different situations, discuss contingency plans, and telegraph their strengths and weaknesses. High-performing teams expect events to deviate from plans. In true complexity, the teams with the most intimate knowledge of each other’s abilities shine.
Where to start
Build Trust. Trust is the bedrock of dynamic subordination.
Establish Communication. Immediate, full, and transparent access to information for all team members is crucial.
Be Vulnerable. Beyond recognising abilities and attributes, mutual, nonjudgmental acknowledgement is vital. The team must be accustomed to sharing strengths and weaknesses openly, understanding that vulnerability means being transparent about both. Also, read this.
Create Low-Risk Opportunities for Practice. Allow team members to practice stepping up when the risk is low.
There is always a CEO
The Person “in Charge” Dynamic subordination doesn’t eliminate the need for someone to be in charge. Call this person what you will: commanding officer, CEO, boss. This individual has three critical roles:
Cultivate trust
Delegate responsibility
Maintain accountability
Regardless of the measure of success achieved in any horizon or task, the person in charge must take ownership of the result and demonstrate support for the team. Ultimately, these three roles are most effectively implemented when the person in charge strives to become a genuine leader. True leaders don’t celebrate or elevate themselves. Instead, they set the example for how they want their team members to perform.
Captain
True leaders don’t seek to stand out or to be recognised as the leader. In fact, they don’t even give themselves the label “leader.” It is given to them by their team members. Also, read “The Captain Class”. True leaders are identifiable by having inspired followers eager to identify with them and be on their team.
The four domains of trust
Trust it’s the bedrock of any team. Without it, you can’t even get off the ground, let alone dynamically subordinate. There are four components, or domains, of building and sustaining trust: competence, consistency, character, and compassion.
Competence: This is straightforward—it’s about being able to do something correctly or as expected.
Consistency: Do the “thing” right over time.
Character: Do the right thing. Character essentially means loyalty to the right thing, whatever that means for your context.
Compassion: Do the right thing because you care.
Dynamic subordination and vulnerability
There is one final trust-building action leaders of dynamically subordinating teams must take: be vulnerable first. Vulnerability on high-performing teams means showing strengths and weaknesses—wearing it all on your sleeve. Dynamic subordination requires this type of vulnerability. As the leader, you must foster an environment where vulnerable sharing happens and is acted upon—and you must go first. Be fully transparent and vulnerable. Share and display not just your strengths but also your weaknesses.
Conscious versus subconscious identity
Teams must be deliberate, intentional, and explicit about the rules and conditions established for identity. Otherwise, a couple of things might happen: Bad rules and conditions might be created. Even good rules and conditions might not be known by everyone. While “unspoken” rules are often part of every team, to consistently thrive in uncertainty and dynamically subordinate, you, along with your team or the leaders of any organisation or group you’re a part of, must intentionally craft the team identity.
Guiding principles
Any organisation can have powerful and motivating values and identities. Values are often about not what you do but how you do it. You can build values like empathy, vulnerability, and honesty into your identity. Your purpose can be to transform or serve the world simply by doing your best, exhibiting character, and performing honourable work. These behaviours, which exemplify values of care and conscientiousness, don’t need to be Herculean—they need to be stated, specified and made actionable. The more specific you can be about actions that support your relationship and shared values, the better you can set proper expectations and trust each other in both certain and uncertain conditions.
Some mistakes
Hiring solely based on candidates’ skills and experiences. See “The rare find”.
Not going deep enough on culture.
Painting core values on the wall absent of deeper implications.
Facilitating bonding with fun activities and team-building exercises without digging into the reasons behind them.
Life
Life is an unpredictable voyage, filled with challenges that test our resilience, adaptability, and courage. Let this be a call to action: to live with purpose, to lead with integrity, and to face the unknown with unwavering determination. In the end, mastering uncertainty is about more than just surviving; it is about thriving.
Share this post