I am a huge fan of Peter Hinssen. But "The Uncertainty Principle" is not one of his best. Los zand. Loose sand as translation. Little coherence.
A book about books
From Asimov, to clio-dynamics, to Kondratiev waves, to Machiavelli, to Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR), Taleb, Arie de Geus, general Stanley McChrystal, Peter Schwartz, Venice, In Search Of Excellence, Xerox, Loonshots,Jim Collins, Hermes, Volvo, Elon Musk, The Coming Wave, Jurassic park, What Technology Wants , Magellan's voyage, productivity 'porn (love that, read this), Vaynerchuk, bullshit jobs , anti-ambition, techno optimism, Jeff Bezos, to anti-future and more. It is in effect a book about books.
21 things to do
About the disconnect between the technological S-curve and our expectation-curve. We tend to overestimate the short-term effects of a technology and underestimate its long-term effects. From new normal to next normal to never normal. I distilled 21 things to do to deal with the never-normal form from the book:
Robustness or resilience. Robustness is about strength and resistance. The ability to withstand disruptions without being significantly affected. It's a defensive strategy, built on stability and durability. Resilience, on the other hand, is about agility and adaptation: the capacity to recover, evolve, and even flourish in the face of change.
Accepting uncertainty. Just as quantum particles are governed by inherent uncertainties, business decisions are filled with unpredictable risks. When faced with the disruption of the Never Normal, companies have two fundamental choices. This is because it is impossible to simultaneously know both the exact position and exact momentum of a particle with perfect precision.
Cohesion and tolerance. Cohesion is the talent to define a strong and lasting sense of identity. Tolerance. Tolerance is the symptom of a company's ecological awareness: its ability to build constructive relationships with other entities, within and outside itself. Conservatism
The memory of the future. Read this. The more memories of the future we develop, the more open and receptive we will be to signals from the outside world.'
Foresight. Scenarios are neither a mystery nor a superior way of "planning". They are tools for foresight: discussions and documents whose purpose is not a prediction or a plan, but a change in the mindset of the people who use them.
Organisational form. Hinssen classification is → Ponies → Unicorns → Godzillas → Dinosaurs → King Kongs → Phoenixes
Ponies. In the context of startups and venture capital, 'ponies' refer to small, early-stage companies that are aspiring to perhaps one day become the elusive 'unicorns'. Ponies are still fragile, unproven entities, with a lot to potentially lose.
Unicorns. The 'unicorn' phenomenon—a private startup company valued at $1 billion or more—was the abundant and cheap venture capital funding that became available in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, as central banks around the world maintained extremely low interest rates.
Godzillas. Now, what the incumbents fear more is the phenomenal rise of the Godzillas, the nickname for Big Tech platforms like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Apple. What makes these Godzillas particularly formidable is their ability to leverage network effects, using vast amounts of user data to create nearly impenetrable competitive advantages.
King Kongs. They resemble the giant at the top of the Empire State Building: they're massive, loud, and seemingly powerful, but they're also in a very precarious position, clinging to the structures that brought them success without fully understanding how they got there or what to do next.
Dinosaurs. And if they're not careful, they're heading into Dinosaur territory. In the corporate ecosystem, 'Dinosaurs' represent once-mighty companies that failed to adapt to changing times, ultimately facing extinction much like their prehistoric namesakes. These corporate dinosaurs share common characteristics: a deep-seated resistance to change, an overconfidence in their market position, and a failure to recognise how fundamentally their business environment was shifting.
The Godzilla Phoenix. However, the explosive growth of AI in recent years has cast uncertainty over Google's future and its ability to maintain dominance. The irony is that much of the AI technology driving the current revolution was pioneered by Google itself. Through its subsidiary DeepMind, Google's predicament mirrors the fate of other tech giants like Xerox and Intel, who also were once pioneers but later missed crucial shifts in their industries. The challenge for Google now is to avoid becoming a cautionary tale of a tech leader that failed. One of the key challenges for Google will be reimagining the concept of search itself in an AI-dominated world.
Relevance vs essential. Being relevant is very, very different from being Essential. Being essential does not automatically mean that you are relevant. Relevance happens when you are acknowledged by your customers as being unique, as providing a set of services, offering a set of products that really 'hit the spot'. But there is ONE fundamental law that you have to understand in this setup: Relevance Erodes. Think of it as a force of nature, the equivalent of the laws of physics in an economic context. It's just a matter of time. Whatever brilliant business model you have. Whatever amazing product you sell. Whatever insanely awesome proposition you have for your customers. Over time, it will get less brilliant, less amazing, less insanely awesome. Gradually, and then suddenly, Relevance Erosion will always set in.
Re-targeting and recharging. The first step consists of re-targeting. That means getting back to understanding how to regain relevance. It involves taking a deep and introspective look at the marketplace to identify new or shifted customer needs, emerging trends, and potential opportunities. This phase involves understanding where the current offerings of the business fall short and identifying what customers now expect or desire that they are not getting. The recharging phase demands leaders who are not only execution-focused but also capable of fostering a culture of learning and innovation. And Satya Nadella of the Phoenix Microsoft is perhaps the most striking example of this type of leader. He is a great fan of Dr. Carol Dweck's book Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. Companies that want to stay relevant in the Never Normal will repeat this loop continuously: relevance erodes, then they re-target to continue doing things that 'matter' to their customers and their market. Then they recharge to make sure.
Innovate when you can. In the 'Never Normal', waiting until a company or strategy has peaked before innovating again is a very dangerous game. Once a business begins to decline, it often becomes too late to make any meaningful changes. The best time to innovate is not when we need to, but when we can. The sweet spot is that precise moment when a company still has momentum, resources, skills, and market goodwill but is close enough to its peak that it can see the potential risks of stagnation. At this stage, a company has maximum flexibility—it can experiment, take risks, and explore new directions without the existential threat of decline looming over it. Unfortunately, this is also the moment where change feels the least necessary.
Optimal action phase—an ideal window where the signal is strong enough to justify action, but where meaningful strategic options still exist. Waiting for clarity and (the illusion of) certainty, rather than accepting the quantum state of the future—where many scenarios and options are still possible—and acting on that, is where the true danger lies. The conclusion here is as simple as the reality behind it is complex: bet on the future while you have options. The future doesn't wait for perfect conditions. It arrives whether you're ready or not.
The ubiquity of risk. This balancing act between professional and personal risk-taking is a way for individuals to manage their overall exposure to uncertainty. Every one of us has a risk appetite, larger or smaller, and most of us have figured out a way to 'balance' the uncertainty in our lives by spreading the risk profile. Risk Is A Spectrum. What does your unique Risk Spectrum look like? Who sits on your Personal Advisory Board? How do they navigate the uncertainty principle, balancing risk and reward in their decision-making?
Thinking the unthinkable. The greatest risk to us is us. Donald Rumsfeld's simplified interpretation of it: 'There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.'
Weak signals. The concept of 'unknown unknowns' by Rumsfeld is interconnected with the concept of 'weak signals': the necessity of picking up, listening and interpreting faint hints or patterns that may point to emerging trends, threats, or opportunities that are not yet fully formed or recognised.
Becoming a network. Empowered execution is a key principle in Team of Teams. The concept of 'shared consciousness' is another crucial element in McChrystal's thinking. In practice, this means breaking down silos and fostering a culture of trust and openness. By doing so, organisations can achieve a level of collective intelligence that enables them to respond to threats and opportunities with greater agility.
The reality distortion field was a confounding mélange of a charismatic rhetorical style, an indomitable will, and an eagerness to bend any fact to fit the purpose at hand. People who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world are the ones who do.
The 'Uncertainty Principle' is a fundamental concept in quantum mechanics, first introduced by physicist Werner Heisenberg in 1927. 'The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, it's acting with yesterday's logic.' The Uncertainty Principle suggests that there are limits to predictability.
Courage to lead. Courage is undoubtedly one of the most vital traits of leadership. Courage is not just about strategy and foresight. It's also relational. Why Would Anyone Want To Be Led By You? Each leader should confront aspects of their identity and motivation through self-reflection and shed all of their preconceived notions of what leadership truly means. Where leaders know themselves, as well as their teams, deeply, allowing them to choose authentically how to lead in different contexts and situations, leadership is about self-knowledge, authenticity, vulnerability and a deep understanding of the relational nature of organisational systems.
Founder mode. Visionary leadership with high passion and high involvement comes at a price, however. Their personal participation in daily operations can become a bottleneck, slow down decision-making and sabotage an organisation's ability to scale. Also read "The founder's mentality".
The absence of fear. Traditional leadership models tend to be deeply rooted in fear-based thinking. Pull-based approaches are about attracting and enabling emerging opportunities, the willingness to experiment and learn rapidly, and the capacity to mobilise diverse groups around shared opportunities.
The leadership matrix. The risk profile axis spans from managerial (low-risk, stability-focused) to entrepreneurial (high-risk, opportunity-seeking) approaches, while the network strength axis ranges from individual (centralised, hierarchical) to collective (decentralised, networked) orientations.
Rational optimism. Every day, we are bombarded with headlines of uncertainty, crisis, collapse, and catastrophe. That is why optimism is not just important—it is essential. A positive narrative is not about ignoring risks, it is about confronting them with courage and creativity. It is about recognising that every challenge we face today—whether it is energy scarcity, climate change, disease, or war—has a technological and humane solution waiting to be built.
In this ever-accelerating Never Normal, we cannot afford to be passive spectators of the future. Use the above, or read this book. Ultimately it is about future fitness.
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